The San Francisco Giants defeated the Cleveland Guardians 10-7 on March 21, 2026, at Scottsdale Stadium, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate had largely anticipated with a 73 percent pre-game home win probability that ultimately reached 100 percent by the final out. San Francisco built its advantage methodically through the early innings before delivering the decisive blows in the third and fourth frames, while Cleveland mounted a notable but ultimately insufficient comeback in the top of the sixth.
The game's most consequential sequence came in the bottom of the third, where Matt Chapman delivered a double off Tanner Bibee that shifted win probability by plus-20.1 percent, the single largest swing of the night. Rafael Devers followed that up with a run-producing single off Bibee worth plus-7.4 percent, and the Giants tacked on four more runs in the fourth on a Jared Oliva home run off Bibee that moved the needle another plus-10.9 percent. Cleveland did threaten in the top of the sixth, as Travis Bazzana launched a home run off Trevor McDonald that swung win probability by plus-13.9 percent, and an Alex Mooney hit by pitch in the same inning added plus-6.7 percent, helping the Guardians plate five runs in that frame to pull within striking distance. However, San Francisco answered with two runs in the bottom of the seventh to push the lead back out of reach.
Bazzana was the standout performer for Cleveland in defeat, finishing with plus-20.2 percent cumulative WPA and a RE24 of plus-3.3, while Chapman led all players with plus-19.7 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.7 for the Giants. Oliva contributed plus-13.6 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.4 in support of the San Francisco win. On the pitching side, Joey Lucchesi paced the Giants staff with plus-7.2 percent WPA, followed by Robbie Ray at plus-3.2 percent and Erik Miller at plus-1.9 percent.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.