The Houston Astros overcame a five-run deficit to defeat the New York Mets 7-5 at Clover Park on March 21, 2026, completing a dramatic comeback that dropped the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Mets win from a pre-game 60 percent all the way to zero. New York built its advantage in the sixth inning, where Marcus Semien's double off Roddery Muñoz proved to be the single biggest swing in the Mets' favor, adding 33.6 percent to their win probability, and AJ Salgado followed with a single off the same pitcher that added another 13.6 percent. Houston had generated little through the early innings, and Semien's second-inning lineout off Mike Burrows actually cost the Astros 11.3 percent in win probability, briefly suppressing any rally before it could begin.
Houston answered decisively in the eighth inning, erasing the deficit with a four-run outburst against Mets relief. The defining moment came when Christian Walker connected for a home run off Ryan Lambert, a swing that shifted win probability by 34.8 percent in the Astros' favor and stood as the single most consequential play of the game. James Nelson extended the damage with a single off Aaron Rozek that added another 14.2 percent. When all the WPA accounting was settled, Walker led all batters at plus-35.0 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.2, while Salgado finished at plus-28.7 percent and the same RE24 figure, and Semien contributed plus-19.6 percent despite the early lineout. On the mound, Mike Burrows was the most valuable arm by WPA at plus-20.5 percent, with Joe Jacques adding plus-7.2 percent and Dylan Howard contributing plus-6.0 percent, as Houston's pitching staff combined to hold a potent Mets lineup scoreless after the sixth.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.