Colorado rolled to a 9-3 victory over San Diego at Peoria Stadium on March 20, 2026, handing the Padres a loss the DiamondIQ model had assigned just a 42 percent chance of entering the game. The Rockies built their margin methodically, scoring in five of nine innings and finishing with 14 hits against a San Diego staff that could not contain Colorado's lineup through the middle frames. San Diego managed only four hits on the night and never threatened in a meaningful way after the game slipped away in the fourth.
The decisive stretch came in the third and fourth innings against Padres starter Nick Pivetta. Jake McCarthy opened the damage with a double in the third inning that shifted win probability 8.6 points toward Colorado, though Hunter Goodman's pop out two batters later swung it back 7.9 points in San Diego's favor and kept the game within reach. That reprieve was brief. In the fourth, Braxton Fulford singled for the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus 12.3 points, and Ezequiel Tovar followed with a home run off Pivetta that added another 10.4 points, effectively sealing the Padres' fate. By the time Colorado's fourth-inning outburst concluded, the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a San Diego comeback had collapsed toward zero.
Fulford finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 11.2, pairing that with a RE24 of plus 1.0, while Tovar posted plus 8.9 WPA and plus 1.0 RE24 and McCarthy contributed plus 7.4 WPA. On the mound, Antonio Senzatela led all pitchers with plus 11.1 WPA, suppressing San Diego's offense deep enough into the game to preserve the comfortable margin. Valente Bellozo added plus 5.0 WPA in relief for Colorado, with his seventh-inning work including surrendering a Marcos Castañon double that accounted for San Diego's lone positive swing of the late innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.