The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Chicago Cubs 8-6 at Sloan Park on March 20, 2026, collecting 14 hits while committing no errors against a Cubs team that made two costly mistakes of its own. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened the game with the Cubs as a slight favorite at 48 percent home win probability, but that number eroded quickly as Cincinnati built an early advantage and never relinquished control, finishing with the Cubs at zero percent.
The decisive shift in win probability came in the top of the third inning, when Matt McLain launched a home run off Matthew Boyd that swung win probability 14.0 percent in Cincinnati's favor, representing the single largest play of the game by WPA. Tyler Stephenson had already set the tone in the second with a home run off Boyd as well, adding 4.9 percent to the Reds' win probability. Chicago's best opportunity to claw back came in the bottom of the fourth, but Moisés Ballesteros grounded into a double play off Brandon Williamson that erased 11.3 percent from the Cubs' chances. Ballesteros had also been limited to a flyout against Williamson in the second, a play that cost Chicago 5.3 percent in win probability. The Cubs showed some late life, scoring three in the eighth and one in the ninth, with Eli Lovich's forceout off Zach Maxwell in the bottom of the ninth adding 12.0 percent for Chicago, though it came far too late to alter the outcome.
On the performance ledger, McLain led all batters with a WPA of plus 13.4 percent and a RE24 of plus 2.1, while Lovich contributed plus 12.0 percent in WPA despite his RE24 of minus 0.5. James Triantos posted the best RE24 among hitters at plus 2.8 to go with plus 7.4 percent in WPA. Brandon Williamson was the clear standout on the mound, generating plus 14.9 percent in WPA to pace all pitchers, with Julian Garcia and Tyler Beede each providing modest positive contributions at plus 1.3 and plus 1.2 percent respectively.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.