San Diego topped Chicago 13-6 at Peoria Stadium on March 19, 2026, a result that pushed the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Padres win from 56 percent before the first pitch to a certainty by the final out. The game was deceptively close through the early innings, with both clubs scoring three in the first and the Padres adding three more in the fourth on Miguel Andujar's single off Ben Peoples, a swing that moved San Diego's win probability up 14.8 percent. Chicago answered with two in the fifth, capped by LaMonte Wade Jr.'s home run off Michael King that added 12.4 percent to the White Sox's chances and briefly kept the game within reach. A potential Chicago rally was further dampened in the seventh when Derek Hill struck out against Bradgley Rodriguez, a 12.3 percent win-probability swing in the Padres' favor that effectively closed the door on any momentum the visitors had built.
The eighth inning sealed it conclusively. San Diego erupted for seven runs in the frame, with Jake Cronenworth's double off Eric Adler serving as the single biggest swing of the game at plus 15.8 percent win probability. Cronenworth finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 23.9 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.8, while Wade led all players in RE24 at plus 3.6 despite pitching on the losing side of the ledger. Fernando Tatis Jr. also contributed meaningfully, posting a plus 15.4 percent WPA. On the mound, Bradgley Rodriguez, Wandy Peralta, and Frankeli Arias were the model's top-graded relievers, contributing plus 11.2, plus 10.6, and plus 9.9 percent WPA respectively as San Diego's bullpen protected a commanding lead through the final frames.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.