The Boston Red Sox defeated the Minnesota Twins 4-2 at JetBlue Park on March 19, 2026, completing a game in which the DiamondIQ model's estimate moved from a 70 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Boston's offense was dormant through the first three innings before breaking through in the fourth, where Ceddanne Rafaela's single off Mick Abel delivered the game's single most consequential swing, adding 17.7 percent to Boston's win probability. The Red Sox added a run in the sixth on a Willson Contreras double off Liam Hendriks, worth 8.6 percent in win probability, and tacked on another in the seventh to build a cushion that Minnesota's late rally could not overcome. The Twins scored once in each of the final two innings, but Rayne Doncon's strikeout against Danny Coulombe in the top of the ninth, which cost Minnesota 8.1 percent in win probability, effectively closed the door on any comeback.
Willson Contreras led all players by WPA with a plus-12.7 percent contribution and a RE24 of plus-1.7, while Rafaela posted plus-11.0 percent WPA and the game's best RE24 at plus-1.8 despite a costly forceout in the second inning that subtracted 6.7 percent from Boston's chances. Matt Wallner added plus-9.6 percent WPA for the Red Sox as well. On the pitching side, Brayan Bello was the story, generating plus-18.1 percent WPA, the highest mark of any pitcher in the game, aided significantly by inducing Kody Clemens into a double play in the top of the sixth that cost Minnesota 10.5 percent in win probability. Tyron Guerrero and Aroldis Chapman each contributed in relief, adding plus-5.6 and plus-5.0 percent WPA respectively, helping Boston hold a Minnesota lineup that finished with six hits and one error-marred afternoon.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.