The New York Yankees walked off with a 5-4 victory over the Baltimore Orioles on March 19, 2026, at George M. Steinbrenner Field, erasing a deficit in the final inning to claim a win the DiamondIQ model had projected at 74 percent before first pitch. Baltimore carried a 4-3 advantage into the bottom of the ninth, having added a run in the eighth on RJ Austin's double off Dylan Coleman, a swing that shifted win probability 15.7 points in the Orioles' favor. That lead, however, proved short-lived.
The decisive sequence came entirely in the bottom of the ninth against Orioles reliever Carter Rustad. Coby Morales opened the inning with a single that nudged New York's win probability up 21.5 points, setting the stage for the game's most consequential moment. Garrett Martin then ended it with a walk-off home run, a blow worth 44.1 percentage points of win probability that sent the DiamondIQ model's estimate to 100 percent and gave the Yankees the final margin. Earlier, Baltimore had briefly threatened to extend its lead in the eighth, but Jean Henriquez stranded baserunners, highlighted by an Edinson Duran strikeout that cost the Orioles 16.5 points of win probability before Jorbit Vivas answered with a run-scoring single worth 15.0 points.
On the pitching side, Dean Kremer was the most impactful arm by the model's accounting, generating 25.3 points of win probability added for Baltimore, with Yaqui Rivera and Yerry De los Santos each contributing positively as well. The Orioles finished with ten hits against eight for New York, but the Yankees needed only the final two outs of the game to turn a one-run deficit into a one-run win.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.