The New York Mets defeated the Houston Astros 6-2 at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches on March 19, 2026, a result that the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected convincingly by game's end, as Houston's pre-game win probability of 42 percent collapsed to zero. New York scored in four separate innings, building the margin methodically and never surrendering the lead after taking it in the second inning.
The decisive stretch came in the fourth and fifth innings, where the game's most consequential plays were concentrated. Brett Baty's double off Steven Okert in the fourth was the single highest-leverage offensive moment of the contest, shifting win probability by plus 11.0 percent, and Jose Aular followed with a walk off Ryan Weiss that added another 9.8 percent. Jorge Polanco drew a walk off Peter Lambert later in the frame for an additional 5.0 percent swing, compounding the damage. Luis Robert Jr. then delivered a double off Weiss in the fifth worth plus 6.7 percent, effectively closing the door on any Houston comeback. Marcus Semien's strikeout off Okert, a negative 5.2 percent moment, was the lone play that briefly checked New York's momentum in that sequence.
On the pitching side, Kodai Senga was the game's most dominant individual contributor, posting a plus 14.5 percent WPA figure that anchored the Mets' effort on the mound. Peter Lambert and Aaron Rozek each added modest positive contributions in relief. Baty finished as the top offensive performer by WPA at plus 10.5 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.1, while Aular edged him in run environment value at plus 1.4 RE24 alongside a plus 10.1 percent WPA mark. Bo Bichette rounded out the top three Mets batters at plus 6.3 percent WPA and plus 1.1 RE24, as New York collected seven hits against Houston's eight but translated their opportunities far more efficiently.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.