Chicago held off Arizona 4-2 at Camelback Ranch on March 19, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at 63 percent in favor of the White Sox and closing at 100 percent by game's end. The contest was effectively decided in the bottom of the sixth, when Chicago plated three runs to break a scoreless tie and take command of a game that had been largely quiet through five innings. Arizona had managed to score twice in the opening frame, but the White Sox answered with a sustained sixth-inning rally that shifted momentum decisively and permanently.
The biggest single play of the game came in that sixth-inning rally, when Chase Meidroth singled off Ryan Thompson for a swing of plus-23.0 percent in win probability, the largest of any plate appearance on the night. A Colson Montgomery reached on a fielding error off Brandyn Garcia added another 11.9 percent to Chicago's chances during the same frame. Meidroth then extended his damage in the eighth with a double off Andrew Hoffmann worth plus-12.3 percent. Arizona's best opportunities to respond were snuffed out in the top of the eighth, when Kristian Robinson struck out and Cristofer Torin grounded out against Lucas Sims, costing the Diamondbacks 14.2 and 13.2 percentage points respectively.
Meidroth finished as the game's most impactful offensive player, accumulating plus-33.1 percent in total WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.4. On the pitching side, Michael Soroka was the clear standout, generating plus-39.4 percent WPA to anchor the Chicago staff. Lucas Sims contributed plus-10.8 percent in relief, and Brandon Eisert added plus-8.5 percent. Gabriel Moreno provided the only other notable offensive contribution for Chicago at plus-8.0 percent WPA. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting Soroka's outing as the central reason the White Sox turned a narrow early deficit into a comfortable final margin.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.