The Los Angeles Angels defeated the Cincinnati Reds 7-4 at Tempe Diablo Stadium on March 18, 2026, in a game that remained competitive into the seventh inning before a decisive swing shifted the outcome firmly in the Angels' favor. The DiamondIQ model opened with the Angels holding a 54% home win probability, a figure that climbed gradually before reaching 100% by game's end.
The decisive moment came in the bottom of the seventh, when Josh Lowe connected on a home run off Will Cannon that swung win probability by +46.8%, the single largest play of the contest by a considerable margin. That blow effectively ended any realistic path back for Cincinnati. Earlier in the game, the Reds had taken a brief grip on the momentum with back-to-back home runs in the top of the sixth — Rece Hinds went deep off Brent Suter for a +13.8% WP swing, followed immediately by JJ Bleday, also off Suter, for an additional +12.1%. Austin Hendrick's single off Hunter Strickland in the top of the seventh added another +16.5% to Cincinnati's win probability, but Harold Coll's lineout to end a rally in that same frame cost the Reds 11.8 percentage points and stalled any chance of a comeback.
Among individual performers, Lowe was the game's most impactful bat per the DiamondIQ model, finishing at +43.9% WPA and a RE24 of +4.3. Rece Hinds was Cincinnati's most valuable contributor at +19.9% WPA and +1.7 RE24, while Hendrick added +16.5% WPA and a RE24 of +1.0. On the pitching side, Jack Kochanowicz led Angels arms with a +14.4% WPA, supported by Sam Moll at +8.1% and Jacob Edwards at +7.1%.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.