Arizona routed Chicago 16-8 at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick on March 18, 2026, in a game that was never truly in doubt after the third inning. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Arizona holding a 60 percent pre-game win probability and closed at 100 percent, reflecting how thoroughly the Diamondbacks put this one away in the middle innings. Arizona plated six runs in the bottom of the third and followed with seven more in the fourth, turning a manageable early deficit into an insurmountable advantage. Chicago managed to scratch across five runs of their own in the top of the third and three more in the eighth, but their three errors contributed to a final line of 8 runs on 9 hits against 16 runs on 17 hits for Arizona.
The decisive swing came in the top of the third, when Jefferson Rojas connected on a home run off Joe Ross that shifted win probability by plus-31.3 percent and briefly gave Chicago life. However, Arizona answered immediately in the bottom half of the inning, erasing that momentum entirely. Aramis Garcia delivered the single biggest Arizona swing with a double off Grayson Moore worth plus-25.1 percent in win probability, followed by Alek Thomas hitting a home run off Edward Cabrera for another plus-14.2 percent. Ildemaro Vargas drew a walk off Moore for an additional plus-10.3 percent, and Michael Conforto's grounded-into-double-play in the top of the third cost Chicago minus-8.0 percent, compounding the damage in that pivotal frame.
On the individual ledger, Rojas led all batters with a plus-30.5 percent WPA and a plus-3.1 RE24, while Garcia matched that RE24 figure and posted plus-26.0 percent WPA to pace Arizona's offensive production. Alek Thomas added plus-12.8 percent WPA and plus-1.1 RE24 in support. Arizona's pitching staff, led by Alec Baker, Corbin Martin, and Kade Strowd, each registered neutral WPA contributions, reflecting how thoroughly the offense handled the workload in this lopsided spring contest.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.