MLB Recap · March 17, 2026

San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

SD9
Final
SEA6

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
SD0200005209101
SEA1010110116100

The Story

The San Diego Padres defeated the Seattle Mariners 9-6 at Peoria Stadium on March 17, 2026, completing a comeback that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Mariners win begin the day at 74 percent and finish at zero. Seattle held early advantages, with Colt Emerson's third-inning home run off Germán Márquez adding 11.0 percent to the Mariners' win probability and Cole Young's sixth-inning single off Matt Waldron pushing it up another 10.9 percent. Through six innings, San Diego trailed and the game appeared to be trending toward a Seattle victory.

The seventh inning rewrote the outcome entirely. Ty France launched a home run off Gunner Mayer that swung win probability 30.6 percent in San Diego's favor, the single most decisive play of the game. Jase Bowen followed with another home run off Mayer worth 25.0 percent, and when Andrés Muñoz entered, Nick Castellanos added a third consecutive home run worth 12.3 percent. The Padres plated five runs in the frame and never relinquished the lead, adding two more in the eighth to build the final margin.

By the DiamondIQ model's accounting, Jase Bowen finished as the top positional contributor with a WPA of plus-24.8 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.5, while Ty France posted plus-22.7 percent WPA and plus-1.3 RE24. Emerson led Seattle's batters with a WPA of plus-22.1 percent and the game's best RE24 at plus-2.3, though his contributions ultimately went for naught. On the mound, Luis Castillo was San Diego's most impactful arm at plus-14.9 percent WPA, followed by Casey Legumina at plus-13.6 percent.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025SD bats firstFinalSEA win %SD win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 26% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Ty France Home Run
Top 7th · off Gunner Mayer
+30.6%
Jase Bowen Home Run
Top 7th · off Gunner Mayer
+25.0%
Nick Castellanos Home Run
Top 7th · off Andrés Muñoz
+12.3%
Colt Emerson Home Run
Bot 3rd · off Germán Márquez
+11.0%
Cole Young Single
Bot 6th · off Matt Waldron
+10.9%

Top Batters by WPA

Jase Bowen+24.8%+1.5 RE24
Ty France+22.7%+1.3 RE24
Colt Emerson+22.1%+2.3 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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