The San Diego Padres defeated the Seattle Mariners 9-6 at Peoria Stadium on March 17, 2026, completing a comeback that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Mariners win begin the day at 74 percent and finish at zero. Seattle held early advantages, with Colt Emerson's third-inning home run off Germán Márquez adding 11.0 percent to the Mariners' win probability and Cole Young's sixth-inning single off Matt Waldron pushing it up another 10.9 percent. Through six innings, San Diego trailed and the game appeared to be trending toward a Seattle victory.
The seventh inning rewrote the outcome entirely. Ty France launched a home run off Gunner Mayer that swung win probability 30.6 percent in San Diego's favor, the single most decisive play of the game. Jase Bowen followed with another home run off Mayer worth 25.0 percent, and when Andrés Muñoz entered, Nick Castellanos added a third consecutive home run worth 12.3 percent. The Padres plated five runs in the frame and never relinquished the lead, adding two more in the eighth to build the final margin.
By the DiamondIQ model's accounting, Jase Bowen finished as the top positional contributor with a WPA of plus-24.8 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.5, while Ty France posted plus-22.7 percent WPA and plus-1.3 RE24. Emerson led Seattle's batters with a WPA of plus-22.1 percent and the game's best RE24 at plus-2.3, though his contributions ultimately went for naught. On the mound, Luis Castillo was San Diego's most impactful arm at plus-14.9 percent WPA, followed by Casey Legumina at plus-13.6 percent.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.