The Chicago Cubs defeated the Los Angeles Angels 8-6 at Sloan Park on March 17, 2026, in a game that was largely decided in the early innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the contest giving the Cubs a 54% home win probability, and that estimate climbed steadily before closing at 100% by the final out. Chicago built its advantage quickly, plating three runs in the second inning and one more in the third against Angels starter Alek Manoah, before extending the lead with three additional runs in the fifth. Los Angeles had moments of resistance, scoring once in the fifth, once in the sixth, and three times in the ninth, but the Angels never threatened to fully close the gap.
The game's most consequential sequence came in the bottom of the second, where Moisés Ballesteros and Carson Kelly each connected for home runs off Manoah. Kelly's blast carried the larger single-play win-probability swing, adding 9.6 percentage points to Chicago's chances, while Ballesteros contributed a 5.7-point boost on his own shot in that same frame. Ballesteros added another home run in the third, good for a further 6.7-point swing, making Manoah's early outing particularly damaging. The Cubs' most significant vulnerability came in the top of the fifth, when Jeimer Candelario launched a home run off Shota Imanaga that added 6.8 percentage points to the Angels' win probability, representing their best moment of the afternoon. Dansby Swanson's double in the bottom half, adding 6.0 points, helped Chicago answer and maintain control.
By individual contribution, Ballesteros led all position players with a combined WPA of plus-12.3 and an RE24 of plus-2.1, while Kelly posted plus-11.3 WPA and a game-high plus-2.6 RE24. Swanson added plus-7.8 WPA despite a slightly negative RE24 of minus-0.2, reflecting his impact in pivotal leverage situations. On the mound, Imanaga led Cubs pitchers with plus-8.1 WPA, absorbing the Candelario home run but otherwise limiting the Angels effectively enough to preserve the win. Tyler Beede contributed plus-3.4 WPA in relief, with Brayden Spears adding plus-1.1 in a supporting role.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.