The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Cincinnati Reds 11-6 on March 16, 2026, at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick, turning what began as an even contest into a decisive home victory. The DiamondIQ model entered the game assigning each side a 50% win probability, but by the final out that figure had shifted entirely to Arizona, finishing at 100% in favor of the Diamondbacks.
The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the third inning, where Arizona did the bulk of its damage in a five-run frame against Reds pitching. James McCann delivered the most impactful blow of the game, a home run off Andrew Abbott that added 11.4% in win probability and proved to be the turning point of the afternoon. Abbott continued to struggle in that same inning, surrendering a Tim Tawa single worth 6.2% in win probability and a Jacob Amaya single worth 5.6%. Arizona added further damage in the bottom of the fourth, scoring four more runs and effectively putting the game out of reach. Ryan Waldschmidt contributed a double off Jimmy Romano in the third that added another 4.7% in win probability. Cincinnati's best chance to shift momentum came in the top of the second, but a Garrett Hampson strikeout against Ryne Nelson cost the Reds 5.0% in win probability and helped stall the offense early.
McCann led all players with a WPA of plus 13.4% and a RE24 of plus 2.3, while Tawa finished at plus 7.7% WPA and plus 2.0 RE24, and Amaya added plus 7.3% WPA and plus 1.3 RE24. On the mound, Ryne Nelson was the most valuable pitcher by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a WPA of plus 12.2% as he held Cincinnati in check during Arizona's key offensive innings. The Reds finished with six runs on nine hits and committed two errors, while Arizona collected 14 hits and limited their own miscues to one in the comfortable victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.