The Toronto Blue Jays held off the Miami Marlins 5-4 at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium on March 16, 2026, in a game that turned decisively on a four-run third inning by the visitors. The DiamondIQ model opened with Miami holding a 51 percent pre-game win probability, but that figure eroded steadily before landing at zero by the final out. The pivotal sequence arrived in the top of the third, where Daulton Varsho delivered a double off Josh Ekness that shifted win probability 14.2 points in Toronto's favor, and Davis Schneider followed with a walk against Janson Junk that added another 10.8 points, collectively swinging the game's complexion within a single frame.
Miami responded with its most meaningful counterpunch in the bottom of the fifth, when Daniel Johnson connected for a home run off Joe Mantiply, a swing worth 12.4 win-probability points that kept the Marlins within striking distance. Otto Lopez had also contributed a single in the bottom of the third off Connor Seabold, worth 8.2 points, as Miami attempted to claw back early. Toronto's best chance to fully put the game away was stunted in the top of the sixth, when Sean Keys grounded into a double play against John King, a sequence that cost the Blue Jays 8.6 points of win probability and allowed the Marlins to remain relevant deep into the contest.
On the individual ledger, Johnson was Miami's standout, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-19.6 and an RE24 of plus-1.9, the best marks on either side. For Toronto, Varsho led with a WPA of plus-14.2 and an RE24 of plus-1.6, while Schneider added plus-10.8 WPA. On the mound, John King led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-6.0 for Miami, though it proved insufficient, as Anthony Bender at plus-4.3 and Pete Fairbanks at plus-4.2 helped Toronto's bullpen secure the one-run margin. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting the Blue Jays' third-inning burst as the game's definitive turning point.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.