Seattle took the final 6-3 over Cincinnati at Peoria Stadium on March 15, 2026, moving the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a 27 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by game's end. The Reds threatened first, as Matt McLain connected on a third-inning home run off George Kirby that swung win probability 10.5 points in Cincinnati's favor, and Tyler Stephenson followed with a single worth another 9.1 points. That two-run frame gave the Reds whatever early foothold they would find, as Seattle's offense was silent through the first four innings.
The fifth inning was the decisive turning point and it was not close. Seattle sent the Reds' bullpen into a tailspin, scoring five runs in the frame to seize control of the game. Luke Raley's double off Pierce Johnson registered the single biggest swing of the night at plus 21.1 win-probability points, and Brendan Donovan followed with his own double off Johnson worth 16.8 points. Rob Refsnyder added a double off Thomas Farr for another 8.7-point shift, and Seattle had effectively ended the contest in one inning. A sixth-inning run extended the lead to 6-2 before Cincinnati added a consolation run in the eighth.
Donovan finished as the game's most impactful offensive player by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, accumulating plus 23.3 win-probability points and a RE24 of plus 2.5, with Raley close behind at plus 16.8 and plus 0.7. On the mound, George Kirby led Seattle's pitching staff with plus 5.1 win-probability points despite surrendering the early Cincinnati runs, and Andrés Muñoz and Brandon Williamson each contributed meaningfully in relief. Cincinnati finished with 11 hits but squandered them, committing no errors while Seattle's two miscues ultimately went unpunished against Cincinnati's offense.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.