The Los Angeles Dodgers routed the Chicago Cubs 14-8 at Sloan Park on March 15, 2026, in a game that was never particularly close despite the final margin suggesting otherwise. The DiamondIQ model entered the contest giving Chicago just a 27% chance of winning at home, and Los Angeles validated that skepticism immediately, plating four runs in the first inning and adding another in the second before the Cubs had found any real footing. A four-run third and a four-run ninth put the game firmly out of reach, leaving the model's estimate at 0% by the final out.
The decisive stretch came in the third inning, where Zach Ehrhard's triple off Jameson Taillon added 3.9% to the Dodgers' win probability, and Mookie Betts followed with a home run off Taillon worth an additional 3.7%. Those two plays in sequence effectively ended whatever slim hope Chicago had of climbing back. The Cubs' best opportunity to generate momentum came in the second inning, when Pedro Ramírez's lineout cost Chicago 6.0% in win probability, and Dansby Swanson's strikeout against Emmet Sheehan in the first cost another 3.4%, underscoring how thoroughly Los Angeles' pitching suppressed any early Chicago rally.
On the individual ledger, Ehrhard led all position players with a WPA of plus-5.8% and a RE24 of plus-1.8, while Alex Call contributed plus-4.5% WPA and plus-1.0 RE24 despite his lineout appearing in the negative plays list for the opposing team's framing. Betts added plus-3.3% WPA. Emmet Sheehan was the standout on the mound, posting a team-best plus-9.7% WPA to anchor a Dodgers pitching effort that held the Cubs largely in check through eight innings before Chicago scratched out five runs in a meaningless ninth. Los Angeles finished with 12 hits against Chicago's 8, committing one error to the Cubs' none.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.