The Athletics routed the Kansas City Royals 12-1 at Hohokam Stadium on March 14, 2026, turning what the DiamondIQ model opened as a 68 percent home-team advantage into a foregone conclusion well before the final out. Oakland collected 15 hits without committing an error, while Kansas City managed just two hits and crossed the plate only once, in the seventh inning.
Ryan Bergert absorbed the brunt of the damage for Kansas City, surrendering the five biggest win-probability swings of the game in sequence. Shea Langeliers delivered the most consequential blow of the afternoon, a home run in the bottom of the third that shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate by plus-7.8 percent, before adding a second home run in the fourth worth another plus-4.4 percent. Nick Kurtz followed that fourth-inning sequence with a home run of his own, a plus-6.6 percent swing that further buried any realistic path to a Kansas City comeback. Henry Bolte's single in the second inning had already nudged the probability needle plus-5.0 percent, and Tyler Soderstrom's double in the third compounded the pressure at plus-3.4 percent, all five plays charged to Bergert.
Langeliers finished as the game's most impactful performer by a wide margin, posting a cumulative WPA of plus-14.6 percent and an RE24 of plus-3.0, while Kurtz added plus-6.0 percent WPA and Bolte contributed plus-4.2 percent. On the mound, Jacob Lopez led Oakland's pitching staff with a plus-7.9 percent WPA, followed by Scott Barlow at plus-3.9 percent and Daniel Lynch IV at plus-0.6 percent. The Athletics' eight-run eighth inning put the margin beyond any doubt and pushed the DiamondIQ model's estimate to 100 percent at the final out.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.