The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Colorado Rockies 8-4 at American Family Fields of Phoenix on March 14, 2026, in a game that was largely decided by the second inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the contest with the Brewers as a near coin-flip at 49% pre-game win probability, but by the final out that figure had climbed to 100%, reflecting how thoroughly Milwaukee controlled the game after the early innings.
The decisive blow came in the bottom of the second, when David Hamilton connected for a home run off Victor Vodnik, swinging win probability by plus-17.7 percentage points and serving as the single largest play of the game. Milwaukee had already built separation by then, scoring four runs in that frame. Colorado's best chance to claw back came in the top of the third, but Cole Carrigg's strikeout against Jacob Misiorowski registered a minus-8.1 percentage point swing, effectively extinguishing any momentum the Rockies might have generated. The Brewers then put the game away in the fifth, when Joey Ortiz hit a home run off Valente Bellozo for plus-8.1 percentage points and Jake Bauers followed with a double off the same pitcher for an additional plus-6.0 percentage points.
Hamilton led all position players with a plus-18.3% WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.4, while Bauers finished at plus-12.0% WPA and Ortiz at plus-11.3%. On the mound, Brandon Sproat paced Milwaukee's pitching staff with a plus-9.7% WPA contribution, followed by Zach Agnos at plus-5.7% and Misiorowski at plus-5.6%. Colorado's errors, two on the night compared to Milwaukee's one, further complicated any path back into the contest.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.