The Texas Rangers routed the San Diego Padres 22-2 on March 14, 2026, at Surprise Stadium in one of the most lopsided results of the spring, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 68 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by game's end. Texas did its most significant damage in the first and third innings, scoring four runs in the opening frame and then erupting for 13 in the third to effectively end any competitive tension before the game reached its midpoint. San Diego finished with seven hits and committed one error against a Rangers club that went 22-for-22 in the hit column without a defensive miscue.
The decisive swing in win probability came on a Jase Bowen home run off Nathan Eovaldi in the top of the third inning, which added 9.3 percent win probability for the Padres and represented the lone moment the visitors appeared to briefly threaten. That momentum dissolved quickly when Pablo Reyes grounded out in the second inning, a play that swung 7.2 percent in Texas's favor. On the Rangers side, Sam Haggerty delivered a triple off Marco Gonzales in the bottom of the third, worth plus-5.2 percent win probability, while Evan Carter's flyout in the second and Willie MacIver's groundout in the first each contributed to the Texas advantage in smaller but cumulative ways.
Bowen led all batters with a WPA of plus-12.6 percent and an RE24 of plus-0.8 despite playing for the losing side, a reflection of how isolated San Diego's offensive contributions were within the blowout context. Sam Haggerty finished with plus-7.2 percent WPA and the game's top RE24 mark among position players at plus-1.8, while Brandon Nimmo posted plus-6.2 percent WPA and a plus-4.0 RE24, the highest run-expectancy figure on the day. Texas pitching, handled in relief by Ryan Brasier, Andrew Dalquist, and Garrett Hawkins, held the Padres scoreless over the final six innings after the game had long since been decided.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.