The Colorado Rockies defeated the Chicago Cubs 4-3 on March 14, 2026, at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 66 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The Cubs grabbed a 2-0 lead in the fifth inning on a Moisés Ballesteros double off Eiberson Castellano, a swing that shifted win probability 12.8 points in Chicago's favor, and they added another run in the sixth to push ahead 3-1. Colorado answered with a run of its own in the bottom of the sixth on a Kyle Karros double off Hunter Harvey, a hit worth 10.4 percentage points, trimming the deficit to one heading into the late innings.
The game turned entirely on one swing in the bottom of the ninth. With Chicago closer Grant Kipp on the mound protecting a 3-2 lead, Braxton Fulford launched a home run that flipped win probability by 79.5 percentage points in a single moment, delivering Colorado a 4-3 walk-off victory. It was the decisive play of the contest by a considerable margin. The inning prior, Mickey Moniak's flyout off Kipp had cost the Rockies 24.2 percentage points of win probability, underscoring just how quickly the game's complexion changed from one half-inning to the next.
Fulford finished as the game's most impactful offensive player, posting a 77.7 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.6. On the Cubs side, Matt Shaw and Kevin Alcántara each contributed roughly 9.9 and 9.8 percent WPA respectively, though their efforts proved insufficient. Colorado's pitching staff carried the model's lean throughout the middle innings, with Konner Eaton leading all pitchers at plus-17.6 percent WPA, aided by inducing Jefferson Rojas into a fifth-inning groundout double play in the seventh that shifted things 13.5 points against Chicago. Ben Brown added 13.9 percent WPA for the Cubs, but Fulford's walk-off blow rendered those contributions moot.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.