The Boston Red Sox defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 7-6 at JetBlue Park on March 13, 2026, in a game that began with the DiamondIQ model's estimate giving Boston a 54 percent pre-game win probability before climbing to 100 percent by the final out. The contest was scoreless through two innings before Tampa Bay scratched out a 2-1 lead in the third, with Jonny DeLuca's single off Johan Oviedo carrying a win-probability impact of plus 17.1 percent for the Rays. Boston reclaimed control in the fifth when Carlos Narváez connected on a home run off Trevor Martin, a swing that added 35.7 percent to Boston's win probability and represented the single most consequential play of the game. The Red Sox extended their advantage with two more runs in the sixth, but Tampa Bay mounted a serious challenge in the seventh, when Carson Williams delivered a single off Seth Martinez worth plus 18.0 percent win probability and Austin Overn followed with a home run off Zack Kelly for another 11.1 percent swing, pushing the Rays to within striking distance.
Boston answered in the bottom of the seventh when Jason Delay launched a home run off Cam Booser, a blow worth plus 15.8 percent win probability that proved to be the decisive cushion. On the mound, Tyron Guerrero led Boston's pitching staff with plus 15.2 percent in WPA, followed closely by Tyler Samaniego at plus 14.5 percent and Cade Citelli adding plus 4.0 percent. Narváez finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 29.7 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.2, while Williams and Delay rounded out the top three contributors. Tampa Bay finished with nine hits against Boston's fourteen, and neither team committed an error, making the pitching decisions and key offensive moments the primary separators in a game that the DiamondIQ model ultimately resolved firmly in Boston's favor.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.