The San Diego Padres defeated the Athletics 13-9 at Hohokam Stadium on March 13, 2026, in a game that swung dramatically after the DiamondIQ model had set the home team's pre-game win probability at 47 percent. The Athletics struck first and struck hard, building a 7-1 lead through four innings before San Diego mounted a sustained comeback that ultimately left Oakland with a zero percent win probability by the final out. The fourth inning was the pivot point in both directions — Tyler Soderstrom's home run off Fernando Sanchez carried a win-probability swing of positive 22.8 percent for the Athletics, the single largest play of the game, while Henry Bolte added a home run off Michael King in the same frame worth another 14.2 percent, giving Oakland what looked like a commanding cushion.
San Diego erased that advantage primarily through a punishing eighth inning that turned the game decisively. Anthony Vilar drew a walk off Nick Hernandez that added 17.0 percent in win probability for the Padres, followed immediately by Braedon Karpathios drawing another walk from Hernandez worth 14.7 percent, as the Athletics bullpen lost command at the worst possible moment. Samad Taylor then drove in a run with a sacrifice fly off CD Pelham, a play the DiamondIQ model valued at 13.5 percent in Padres win probability, capping a five-run eighth that flipped control of the game entirely. San Diego scored two more in the ninth to close at 13-9, while the Athletics managed only one run over the final six frames after their fourth-inning burst.
On the pitching side, Jeremiah Estrada led San Diego's relievers with a win-probability contribution of plus 12.3 percent, followed by Hogan Harris at plus 8.5 percent and Mark Leiter Jr. at plus 7.3 percent, a trio that steadied the Padres after the early damage. Offensively, Soderstrom led all batters by WPA despite pitching for the losing side, finishing at plus 21.7 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.8, a reminder that his fourth-inning blast made the Athletics' eventual collapse all the more striking. Vilar and Karpathios, each contributing through patience rather than contact, finished at plus 16.9 and plus 14.7 percent respectively, underscoring how San Diego's eighth-inning rally was built as much on walks as on hits in a 16-hit, 13-run performance.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.