The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Baltimore Orioles 11-8 at BayCare Ballpark on March 13, 2026, in a game that swung decisively in Philadelphia's favor through a pair of pivotal home run swings. The DiamondIQ model entered the day giving Philadelphia a 54 percent win probability, and by the final out that figure had climbed to 100 percent. Baltimore briefly seized momentum in the third inning when Samuel Basallo connected on a home run off Andrew Painter, a swing that shifted win probability 16.3 points in Baltimore's favor and gave the Orioles a three-run frame. The Phillies answered in the fifth, however, when Alec Bohm launched a home run off Tyler Wells that produced the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 21.1 points, punctuating a five-run inning that put Philadelphia firmly in control.
The seventh inning added further separation for both sides in an eventful frame. Bryan Ramos delivered a single off Tucker Davidson that moved the needle 9.8 points in Baltimore's favor, keeping the Orioles' rally alive and accounting for four runs on the inning's ledger. Philadelphia responded in the bottom half, where Liover Peguero's double off Jackson Kowar produced an 11.5-point swing and helped push two more Phillies across. When the dust settled, the Orioles had managed four runs in the seventh but could not overcome the deficit built by Philadelphia's earlier outburst.
On the strength of their individual performances, Bohm finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 22.6 percent with a RE24 of plus 3.3, while Basallo posted plus 20.5 percent WPA and the game's highest RE24 at plus 3.8 despite being on the losing side. Peguero contributed plus 11.5 percent WPA for Philadelphia. Among pitchers, José Alvarado led all arms with plus 6.3 percent WPA, followed by Tanner Banks and Grant Wolfram each at plus 5.7 percent, as the Phillies bullpen helped preserve the three-run final margin.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.