The New York Mets defeated the Washington Nationals 8-3 at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches on March 13, 2026, handing Washington a loss that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win fall from 54% before first pitch to 0% at the final out. The Mets scored once in the first inning and added two more in the fifth, but it was the eighth inning where they broke the game open with three additional runs. Washington managed just three hits against a Mets pitching staff that kept the Nationals largely in check, while New York committed two errors of their own against Washington's three.
The decisive moment came in the top of the eighth when Nick Roselli laced a double off Jared Simpson, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 31.3 percentage points and effectively ended any remaining doubt about the outcome. Nick Lorusso followed with a walk off Simpson that added another 10.8 percentage points, and the Mets would go on to score three times in the frame before adding three more in the ninth. On the Washington side, the most damaging sequence came in the bottom of the third when Yohandy Morales grounded into a double play off Carl Edwards Jr., a play that cost the Nationals 11.5 percentage points of win probability at a moment when they still had a realistic path to the win. Nasim Nunez provided Washington's brightest offensive moment, as his fifth-inning double off Bryan Hudson generated a plus 11.3 percentage point swing and accounted for two of the Nationals' three runs in that frame.
Among individual performers, Roselli led all position players with a plus 31.2 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.5, while Lorusso posted a RE24 of plus 1.8 to go along with his plus 11.7 percent WPA. Nunez was Washington's standout, finishing at plus 15.5 percent WPA and plus 1.3 RE24. On the mound, Carl Edwards Jr. headlined the Mets' pitching effort with a plus 23.7 percent WPA, supported by Ryan Lambert at plus 13.3 percent and Marquis Grissom Jr. at plus 8.5 percent. The Nationals finished with a 3-3-3 line in runs, hits, and errors, a combination that left little margin against a Mets offense that produced ten hits and applied consistent pressure throughout the later innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.