The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Seattle Mariners 10-7 at Peoria Stadium on March 13, 2026, in a game that swung decisively on a six-run Dodgers sixth inning. The DiamondIQ model's estimate gave Seattle a 14 percent chance of winning before first pitch, and that number fell to zero by the final out. Los Angeles finished with 11 hits and no errors, while Seattle managed 7 hits against a 7-run deficit that proved insurmountable despite a three-run ninth.
The pivotal sequence came in the top of the sixth, when the Dodgers broke the game open against Mariners pitching. Kyle Tucker's home run off Robinson Ortiz was the single most impactful play of the contest, shifting win probability 13.7 percent in Los Angeles's favor, and Tucker finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-17.6 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.0. Santiago Espinal followed with a single off Ortiz that added another 12.6 percent to Los Angeles's win probability, and James Tibbs III connected on a home run off Tyler Cleveland worth 9.1 percent. Seattle's best moment had come earlier, in the bottom of the second, when Rhylan Thomas doubled off Landon Knack to shift win probability 9.1 percent toward the Mariners. Thomas finished second among all batters by WPA at plus-14.4 percent, but his contributions were ultimately outweighed by the Dodgers' sixth-inning surge.
On the mound, Kade Anderson led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-13.0 percent, with Edgardo Henriquez and José A. Ferrer adding plus-7.9 and plus-6.3 percent respectively to support the Dodgers' cause. The model leans toward crediting the Los Angeles bullpen and the concentrated damage of the sixth inning as the structural reasons this game was decided well before Seattle's three-run ninth made the final margin appear closer than the underlying win-probability trajectory suggested.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.