The New York Yankees defeated the Detroit Tigers 4-3 at Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium on March 12, 2026, erasing a deficit and handing the Tigers a loss despite Detroit entering the ninth inning holding a lead. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with a 54 percent pre-game probability favoring the home club, but that figure collapsed to zero by the final out. New York scored twice in the first inning, added one more in the second, then went quiet until the eighth, when Detroit had clawed back to within a run. The Yankees ultimately pushed across the decisive run in the top of the ninth to seal the outcome.
The decisive swing of the contest came when Josh Moylan drew a walk off Logan Berrier in the top of the ninth, a play the DiamondIQ model registered as a 32.0 percent win-probability shift in New York's favor. That moment essentially transferred control of the game to the Yankees. On the other side of the ledger, Zach McKinstry's two-run home run off Will Warren in the bottom of the fifth moved the needle 19.3 percent in Detroit's direction and represented the Tigers' most impactful offensive moment. The bottom of the ninth ended when Andrew Jenkins grounded out off Bradley Hanner, a play that registered as a 31.6 percent swing for New York, confirming the Yankees' hold on the result and ending Detroit's last threat.
Moylan led all position players with a 32.0 percent WPA and a 1.0 RE24, while McKinstry posted a 1.6 RE24, the highest among batters despite his team falling short. On the mound, Will Warren led Yankees pitchers with a 20.4 percent WPA contribution, followed by Brant Hurter at 11.4 percent and Cade Winquest at 9.7 percent. Winquest's evening included a critical double play off Roberto Campos's bat in the seventh, a sequence the model valued at a 10.3 percent swing in New York's direction. Detroit committed one error against none for New York, a disparity that quietly shaped the margin in a one-run game.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.