The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 8-5 at BayCare Ballpark on March 12, 2026, in a game that was effectively decided through the first three innings. The DiamondIQ model entered with a 54 percent home win probability, but by the time the dust settled in the bottom of the third, that estimate had climbed toward certainty, finishing at 100 percent. Philadelphia scored in each of the first three frames, plating one in the first, three in the second, and four in the third to build a lead Toronto could never fully threaten. The Blue Jays made a late push with two runs in the fourth and two more in the fifth, but the damage had already been done.
The decisive stretch ran through the bottom of the second inning against Toronto starter CJ Van Eyk, who surrendered the game's highest-impact sequence. Trea Turner delivered the single biggest swing of the game, a double that added 11.2 percent win probability for Philadelphia. Later in that same frame, a Dylan Moore hit by pitch contributed 5.8 percent, while a Brandon Marsh strikeout added another 5.8 percent in the other direction for the Phillies by prolonging the inning in terms of leverage. Alec Bohm then added a home run off Van Eyk in the bottom of the third that carried a 6.0 percent win-probability swing. On the Toronto side, Daulton Varsho provided the most meaningful offensive contribution with a double off Chase Shugart in the top of the fifth that added 7.8 percent win probability, though the Jays trailed by too wide a margin to capitalize.
Turner finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 12.0 percent to go with a RE24 of plus 1.9, while Varsho led the Toronto side at plus 9.4 percent WPA and plus 1.5 RE24. Bohm rounded out the top three batters at plus 5.8 percent WPA and plus 0.8 RE24. Philadelphia's bullpen locked down the final innings with Génesis Cabrera and Zach Pop each contributing plus 5.0 percent WPA, and Jonathan Hernández adding plus 4.5 percent, collectively ensuring Toronto's middle-inning runs produced no meaningful threat to the outcome.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.