The Colorado Rockies defeated the Seattle Mariners 11-7 at Peoria Stadium on March 11, 2026, overcoming a game that the DiamondIQ model's estimate had opened with Seattle holding a 54% win probability. The Rockies and Mariners traded runs through the middle innings, but the contest turned decisively in the seventh and eighth frames, when Colorado's offense surged and the model's estimate shifted all the way to a 0% final probability for the home side.
The pivotal sequence began in the top of the seventh, when Troy Johnston drove a triple off Casey Lawrence that added 21.1% to Colorado's win probability, followed by a Charlie Condon double that pushed the advantage further by 13.5%. Seattle responded in the bottom half as Brock Rodden homered off Keegan Thompson for a 18.5% swing, and Cole Young followed with another home run off Thompson worth 18.0%, briefly keeping the Mariners within reach. Any hope Seattle retained evaporated in the top of the eighth, when GJ Hill crushed a home run off Casey Lawrence that registered a game-high 47.5% win probability swing, effectively sealing a three-run frame that made the score insurmountable. Colorado finished with 12 hits and committed no errors, while Seattle's two errors contributed to a 15-hit effort that nonetheless fell short.
Hill led all position players with a combined WPA of plus-47.5% and a RE24 of plus-2.6, making him the clearest driver of the outcome. Troy Johnston finished at plus-26.3% WPA and plus-1.5 RE24, while Cole Young, despite his home run coming in a losing effort for that frame, posted plus-26.2% WPA and plus-1.8 RE24 on the strength of his overall contributions. On the mound, Yosver Zulueta led Colorado's pitching staff with plus-7.3% WPA, followed by Zach Agnos at plus-5.9% and TJ Shook at plus-3.6%, a collective effort that held Seattle's lineup to seven runs despite the Mariners' 15 hits.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.