The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 7-2 at Ed Smith Stadium on March 11, 2026, in a game that was never truly in doubt after the fifth inning. The DiamondIQ model opened with Baltimore holding a 54% win probability as the home side, and that figure climbed steadily before reaching 100% by the final out. Through four scoreless innings the game appeared tightly contested, but a Taylor Ward home run off Noah Davis in the bottom of the fifth shifted the balance dramatically, adding 30.0% in win probability in a single swing and effectively breaking the game open. Baltimore added three more runs in the seventh to put the contest well out of reach, finishing with a 7-2 final that reflected their total command of the afternoon.
Ward was the clear offensive catalyst, leading all players with a WPA of plus 26.8% and a RE24 of plus 2.2, his fifth-inning blast serving as the decisive moment of the game. José Barrero also contributed meaningfully, posting a plus 5.1% WPA and plus 1.9 RE24, while Pete Alonso added a modest plus 2.2% WPA. On the mound, Kyle Bradish was the standout performer, generating plus 20.2% WPA to anchor the Baltimore pitching effort, with Chris Bassitt adding plus 10.0% WPA in relief. Pittsburgh's offense managed only four hits and two runs, with Nick Yorke's groundout in the top of the seventh carrying a negative 4.5% swing against the Pirates' fading chances. The model leans heavily toward Baltimore's pitching staff as the story of the day, holding Pittsburgh to minimal damage while Ward's bat provided the burst of run production that sealed the outcome.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.