The Houston Astros defeated the Miami Marlins 4-1 at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium on March 11, 2026, handing the home side a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected sharply — Miami entered with a 54% win probability and finished at 0%. Houston's offense was quiet through the first three innings before Isaac Paredes broke the scoreless tie in the fourth with a home run off Janson Junk, a swing that shifted win probability by 11.6 percentage points. The Astros then put the game away in the sixth inning against Bradley Blalock, with Zach Cole and Jose Altuve each connecting for home runs — adding 13.0 and 10.3 percentage points to Houston's win probability, respectively — turning what had been a close contest into a commanding advantage.
Miami's lone answer came in the seventh inning when Heriberto Hernandez hit a home run off Spencer Arrighetti, a 10.0-point swing that briefly trimmed the deficit, though it proved to be the Marlins' only substantial threat. Caden Powell added a single off Cade Gibson in the eighth that contributed another 7.0-point swing to seal the outcome. On the pitching side, Tatsuya Imai led all pitchers by WPA at plus-12.0 percentage points, with Arrighetti and Max Meyer contributing plus-9.7 and plus-8.2 points respectively despite Arrighetti surrendering the Hernandez home run. At the plate, Paredes finished as Houston's top performer by WPA at plus-10.7 with a RE24 of plus-1.0, followed by Altuve at plus-7.6 and Cole at plus-7.4, as the Astros collected six hits against two for Miami in a methodical road victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.