The New York Yankees defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 4-2 at BayCare Ballpark on March 10, 2026, overcoming an early deficit to hand Philadelphia a loss despite the Phillies entering with a 54 percent pre-game win probability according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. The Yankees finished with 7 hits and 2 errors, while Philadelphia collected 8 hits but was held scoreless after the third inning, unable to capitalize when it mattered most.
The decisive sequence came in the top of the sixth inning, where the Yankees did their most significant damage against Lou Trivino III. Max Schuemann's double shifted win probability 12.1 percent in New York's favor, and Jasson Domínguez followed with a single that added another 11.0 percent, a back-to-back combination that effectively broke the game open. Philadelphia's best offensive moment had arrived earlier, in the bottom of the third, when J.T. Realmuto connected for a home run off Luis Gil that swung win probability 11.2 percent toward the Phillies. A costly moment for Philadelphia came in the bottom of the second, when René Pinto grounded into a double play off Gil, costing the Phillies 8.8 percent in win probability and erasing a potential threat.
Among individual performers, Realmuto led all batters with a WPA of plus 13.4 percent and an RE24 of plus 1.4, providing Philadelphia's lone significant offensive contribution. On the Yankees' side, Domínguez posted a WPA of plus 10.0 and an RE24 of plus 1.8, while Schuemann added plus 9.9 WPA. On the mound, Paul Blackburn was the standout of the evening with a WPA of plus 22.3 percent, the highest of any pitcher, followed by Chuck King at plus 9.3 and Zach McCambley at plus 6.3, a collective pitching effort that kept Philadelphia's lineup quiet through the game's final six innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.