The Tampa Bay Rays and Detroit Tigers played to a 4-4 draw on March 9, 2026, at Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win sitting at 54% before first pitch and falling to 0% at the final out. Detroit built an early lead on the strength of John Peck's second-inning home run off Shane McClanahan, a swing that shifted win probability by 11.9 percentage points in the Tigers' favor. Tampa Bay answered in the fourth with a two-run frame before Will Simpson delivered the game's single most consequential hit, a sixth-inning home run off Kyle Finnegan that swung win probability 21.8 points toward the Rays and gave Tampa Bay a 4-3 lead heading into the bottom half.
Detroit's response in the sixth came up short in costly fashion. With runners on base and a chance to retake the lead, Austin Slater grounded into a double play off Jake Woodford, a sequence that drained 14.2 points of win probability from the Tigers' outlook. Kevin McGonigle then erased the deficit entirely with a seventh-inning home run off Woodford, a 17.3-point swing that knotted the game at four. The contest stayed there through nine innings, with Peyton Graham's single off Derrick Edington in the bottom of the ninth adding 11.0 points of win probability before the rally stalled. Detroit finished with a 9-8-1 line compared to Tampa Bay's 8-0, and the game ended without a winner.
Will Simpson was the day's most impactful offensive performer, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-32.1 and a RE24 of plus-2.0. On the mound, Tanner Rainey led all pitchers at plus-13.5 WPA, with Cam Booser and Will Vest close behind at plus-10.9 and plus-10.6 respectively. The DiamondIQ model leaned toward Detroit entering the game based on the home-field edge, but Simpson's sixth-inning blast and a strong relief effort kept the Rays from leaving Florida with a loss.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.