The Pittsburgh Pirates handed the New York Yankees a 5-3 defeat at George M. Steinbrenner Field on March 9, 2026, overcoming a deficit that had New York ahead through four innings and erasing what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 54 percent pre-game home win probability for the Yankees down to zero by the final out.
The decisive turn came in the top of the fifth, when Konnor Griffin doubled off Jake Bird in a sequence that shifted win probability by plus-18.2 percent in Pittsburgh's favor — the single largest swing of the game. That hit anchored a three-run frame that gave the Pirates a lead they never surrendered. Pittsburgh extended its advantage with an insurance run in the sixth and another in the eighth, the latter driven by Shawn Ross's double off Kyle Carr, a plus-15.7 percent swing that effectively closed the door on any meaningful New York comeback. The Yankees threatened briefly in the eighth, but JoJo Jackson's strikeout off Yohan Ramírez and Enmanuel Tejeda's forceout off Beau Burrows cost New York minus-11.4 and minus-9.7 percent in win probability respectively, stalling the rally. Seth Brown's groundout to end the ninth represented the final plus-12.0 percent swing, this time in Pittsburgh's favor as Beau Burrows finished the game.
Among the standouts, Ross led Pittsburgh's position players with a plus-15.7 percent WPA and a plus-0.9 RE24, while Griffin posted a plus-14.4 percent WPA and the game's top RE24 mark of plus-1.1. Jorbit Vivas contributed a quiet but meaningful plus-10.6 percent WPA on the offensive side. On the mound, Mason Montgomery led all pitchers at plus-12.4 percent WPA, with Yohan Ramírez adding plus-8.8 percent and Isaac Mattson plus-6.8 percent as Pittsburgh's staff combined to hold New York to three runs on six hits while committing just one error against New York's two.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.