The Boston Red Sox defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 5-3 at JetBlue Park on March 9, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate aligned with closely, having opened with a 54 percent home win probability before finishing at 100 percent as the game's decisive frame effectively settled the outcome. Boston's third inning was the turning point, with the Red Sox scoring four runs to erase a 2-0 Philadelphia deficit and seize control of the game they would not relinquish.
The biggest single play of the afternoon was Nick Sogard's home run off Phillies starter Bryse Wilson in the bottom of the third, a swing that added 30.0 percent in win probability and served as the centerpiece of Boston's four-run rally. Carlos Narváez contributed a single in that same inning off Wilson, adding another 9.0 percent in win probability, while Braiden Ward's single off Chase Shugart in the fifth extended Boston's lead and registered a 9.7 percent win-probability addition. Philadelphia had moments that threatened to shift momentum, most notably Kristian Campbell's strikeout in the second inning, which cost the Red Sox 9.4 percent in win probability, and Caleb Durbin's ground into a double play in the third that erased 11.9 percent, though neither proved consequential given Boston's overall control.
On the individual ledger, Sogard finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-22.3 percent to go with a RE24 of plus-2.0, underscoring how central his home run was to the outcome. Narváez followed at plus-11.6 percent WPA with a RE24 of plus-1.0, and Ward checked in at plus-9.9 percent with a RE24 of plus-0.9. Boston's bullpen trio of Seth Martinez, Tyler Samaniego, and Ryan Watson each contributed positively on the mound, adding 8.1, 7.2, and 6.4 percent in win probability respectively, helping the Red Sox close out a clean defensive effort with no errors on either side on a combined 17 hits.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.