The Houston Astros defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 10-3 on March 9, 2026, at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches, turning what opened as a near coin-flip into a dominant home performance. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with Houston at a 54% pre-game win probability and closed at 100%, a shift driven almost entirely by a burst of Astros offense in the middle innings.
The decisive stretch came in the bottom of the fourth, where Houston broke the game open against Cardinal pitching. Joey Loperfido delivered the single most impactful play of the contest, connecting for a home run off Richard Fitts that swung win probability by plus-18.7 points. Taylor Trammell followed with a triple off Hunter Hayes in that same frame, adding another plus-16.1-point swing as Houston pushed four runs across the inning. The Astros had already shown signs of life in the third, when Isaac Paredes singled off Fitts to generate a plus-10.5-point shift. The Cardinals' best offensive moment came in the second inning, when Nathan Church singled off Cristian Javier for a plus-8.3-point swing, though a CJ Alexander flyout to close out that bottom half cost Houston 7.8 points of probability and briefly stalled their momentum. Houston tacked on four more runs in the eighth to finalize the 10-3 margin, finishing with 14 hits against one Cardinal error.
Loperfido led all position players with a plus-22.3% WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.9, while Trammell and Paredes contributed plus-12.2% and plus-10.7% WPA respectively. On the mound, Peter Lambert was the most valuable arm on either side, posting a plus-13.9% WPA for Houston, with Ryan Weiss adding plus-7.1%. The Cardinals finished with five hits and no errors but could not generate the sustained offense needed to challenge a Houston lineup that produced efficiently from the third inning onward.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.