The New York Mets handled the New York Yankees 10-4 at Clover Park on March 8, 2026, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Mets win from 54 percent before first pitch to a certainty by the final out. New York made three errors on the afternoon, and the Mets capitalized on that sloppiness while building an early and ultimately insurmountable advantage. The Yankees managed eight hits but could not string together enough to threaten seriously, finishing with four runs against a Mets pitching staff that allowed nothing after the fourth inning.
The decisive stretch came in the second and third innings, when the Mets built the core of their lead against Ryan Weathers. A Vidal Bruján walk in the bottom of the second, worth plus 6.4 percent in win probability, preceded an A.J. Ewing single that added another 5.8 percent. New York carried a three-run advantage into the third, where Brett Baty delivered the game's single most impactful offensive play, a double off Weathers that swung win probability by plus 10.7 percent. The Yankees briefly applied pressure in the top of the fourth when Jasson Domínguez singled off Carl Edwards Jr. to produce an 8.6 percent positive swing, but New York scored only twice in that frame before the Mets answered with a run of their own, and the Yankees went scoreless across the final five innings. The Mets then added three more in the seventh to close out the margin.
Baty led all players by WPA at plus 12.7 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.7, while Domínguez led the Yankees side at plus 11.5 percent despite his team's loss. Tyrone Taylor also contributed meaningfully for the Mets at plus 9.7 percent WPA. On the mound, Jonathan Pintaro was the most valuable Mets arm by the DiamondIQ model's measure at plus 3.1 percent, followed by Aaron Rozek at plus 1.9 percent and Brett Banks at plus 1.1 percent. The model, which opened with a modest lean toward the home side, ended with its estimate fully resolved in the Mets' favor.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.