The Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the Boston Red Sox 9-7 at LECOM Park on March 8, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Pittsburgh win climbing from a pre-game 54 percent home win probability to a certainty by the final out. The Pirates built their advantage incrementally, scoring in the second, third, fourth, and sixth innings, with the bottom of the sixth proving particularly damaging as Pittsburgh plated four runs to push the lead to a comfortable margin. Boston chipped away throughout but could never fully close the gap, finishing with 13 hits against Pittsburgh's 12 while committing no errors to Pittsburgh's two.
The game's most consequential sequence centered on Billy Cook, whose double in the bottom of the second off Kyle Keller shifted win probability 13.3 percent in Pittsburgh's favor, and whose home run off Tyler Uberstine in the fourth added another 10.9 percent swing. Cook finished as the game's top performer by a wide margin, accumulating a combined WPA of plus-24.2 percent and an RE24 of plus-3.2. Boston's best moment came in the top of the eighth, when Mickey Gasper hit a home run off Mike Clevinger that swung win probability 17.5 percent toward the Red Sox and made it a two-run game, giving Gasper a final WPA of plus-18.5 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.0. Andruw Monasterio also contributed meaningfully for Boston, his third-inning single off Carmen Mlodzinski adding 10.1 percent to Boston's win probability and totaling plus-14.6 percent WPA on the day.
On the mound, Pittsburgh's bullpen carried the win home, with Chris Devenski leading Pittsburgh pitchers at plus-7.0 percent WPA, followed by Cam Sanders at plus-6.3 percent. Connor Wong's groundout into a double play in the top of the fifth off Devenski represented the single most damaging moment for Boston's offense, costing the Red Sox 13.3 percent in win probability at a moment when a rally might have altered the outcome. The model leans toward Pittsburgh having been the more efficiently executed team on this afternoon despite Boston's late push.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.