The Washington Nationals shut out the New York Yankees 3-0 on March 7, 2026, at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches, handing New York a clean defeat behind a pitching staff that surrendered just three hits. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with Washington as a modest 54% favorite and finished at 100% certainty, a reflection of how thoroughly the Nationals controlled the contest from the middle innings onward.
The decisive damage came in the fourth and fifth innings. In the fourth, a CJ Abrams walk off Will Warren shifted win probability by 5.6 percentage points, and a Dylan Crews single added another 4.0 points as Washington pushed across its first run. The Nationals extended the lead in the fifth when James Wood ripped a triple off Jake Bird, the single most impactful plate appearance of the game at plus 9.5 percentage points of win probability. Drew Millas followed with a run-scoring single off Bird worth another 5.8 points, effectively closing the door on any New York comeback. Wood was the game's most consequential offensive player by DiamondIQ's accounting, finishing at plus 7.8% WPA and plus 0.8 RE24, while Abrams added plus 4.2% WPA in support.
On the mound, Washington's pitchers were the true story. Ken Waldichuk led all pitchers with a plus 17.1% WPA, followed by Josiah Gray at plus 8.2%. For the Yankees, Will Warren actually generated plus 5.4% WPA despite allowing the fourth-inning damage, a measure of how little support the New York offense provided against a Nationals staff that kept the Yankees to three hits and benefited from two New York errors that never materialized into runs for the visitors.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.