The Chicago Cubs defeated the Oakland Athletics 4-3 at Sloan Park on March 7, 2026, in a game that began with the DiamondIQ model estimating a 54 percent pre-game home win probability and ended with that figure reaching 100 percent. The scoring opened in the second inning when the Cubs plated two runs, but Oakland answered sharply in the third when Brian Serven launched a home run off Shota Imanaga, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 20.1 percent and represented the single largest play of the afternoon from either side. Chicago regained and extended its lead with Ian Happ connecting for a solo home run off Hogan Harris in the fifth, a plus 13.4 percent WPA moment, and added another run in the sixth to push the final margin to one.
The Athletics mounted a late threat but were undone by critical moments in the final frames. Brett Harris grounded into a double play in the eighth against Jack Neely, a swing of minus 16.4 percent in win probability that effectively extinguished Oakland's best late-inning opportunity. In the ninth, Clark Elliott struck out against Jeff Brigham for a minus 10.9 percent WPA hit to the Athletics' chances, though Leo De Vries drew a walk off Brigham for a plus 10.6 percent counterpoint that briefly kept hope alive before Chicago closed things out.
On the offensive side, Serven led all batters with a plus 19.7 percent WPA and plus 1.4 RE24, while Happ finished at plus 17.3 percent WPA and plus 1.1 RE24, and Carson Kelly contributed plus 12.3 percent WPA and plus 1.1 RE24 for Chicago. From the mound, Jeff Brigham led Cubs relievers with plus 15.2 percent WPA, supported by Jack Neely at plus 10.8 percent and Gavin Hollowell at plus 8.5 percent. The Cubs finished with eight hits and no errors against six hits and no errors for Oakland, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected a Cubs side that controlled the critical moments across all nine innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.