The Philadelphia Phillies erased a three-run deficit with a massive fourth inning and pulled away late to defeat the Pittsburgh Pirates 14-10 at LECOM Park on March 6, 2026. Pittsburgh had jumped out to a 3-0 lead after the third inning, but Philadelphia answered with nine runs in the top of the fourth, the pivotal moment of the game coming when Rafael Marchán drove a double off Joshua Loeschorn, a swing that shifted win probability by 18.3 percentage points. The DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Pittsburgh victory, which began the game at 54 percent, never recovered after that frame.
The Pirates briefly threatened to claw back in the bottom of the eighth, where Omar Alfonzo launched a home run off Yoniel Curet that represented the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus-31.9 percentage points, and Derek Berg followed with his own home run off Curet worth an additional 12.0 points, trimming what had been a comfortable Phillies advantage. However, a fielding error by Dylan Campbell off Michael Darrell-Hicks in the top of the ninth opened the door for Philadelphia to plate four more runs and seal the outcome, that miscue shifting the win-probability needle by 22.3 percentage points in the Phillies' favor.
Among the individual standouts, Alfonzo finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-28.8 percent with an RE24 of plus-1.4, while Ryan O'Hearn contributed a third-inning home run off Saul Teran worth 22.5 percentage points and closed with a WPA of plus-26.6 and RE24 of plus-2.8. Marchán led all batters in RE24 at plus-2.9 to go with his plus-22.3 WPA. On the mound, Andrew Walling led Philadelphia's pitching staff with a WPA of plus-8.8, followed by Jean Cabrera at plus-6.4 and Seth Johnson at plus-5.6, as the Phillies' pitchers combined to allow ten runs while committing zero errors behind them.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.