The Atlanta Braves defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 9-5 at CoolToday Park on March 5, 2026, a game in which the DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Atlanta holding a 54 percent pre-game win probability and closed at 100 percent. The Braves built their advantage methodically through the middle innings, with Dominic Smith's home run off Louis Varland in the bottom of the fourth representing one of the game's first significant probability swings, adding 17.6 percentage points to Atlanta's win probability. Toronto attempted to answer in the seventh, where Cutter Coffey delivered a two-run double off Jacob Kroeger that shifted the Blue Jays' win probability by 18.1 points, briefly tightening the contest. Atlanta responded emphatically in the bottom half of that same inning, when Tristin English crushed a double off Nate Garkow that proved to be the single most impactful play of the night at plus 22.8 percentage points, effectively ending any remaining Toronto hopes.
The Blue Jays were not without their moments, as Sean Keys contributed a double off Spencer Strider in the fifth that added 12.7 points of win probability, and Toronto finished with 12 hits on the night. However, a pivotal negative swing came in the top of the third, when Jesús Sánchez grounded into a double play off Chris Sale, costing Toronto 13.8 percentage points at a moment when the game remained within reach. Atlanta's top performers by win probability added were English at plus 22.8 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.5, followed closely by Mauricio Dubón at plus 18.4 percent and plus 1.8 RE24, and Addison Barger at plus 17.7 percent and plus 1.6 RE24. On the mound, Anderson Pilar led Atlanta's pitching staff with a plus 10.5 percent WPA contribution, supported by Michael Plassmeyer at plus 6.3 percent and Eric Lauer at plus 4.4 percent, as the Braves rolled to a convincing four-run victory with no errors committed by either side.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.