The Miami Marlins shut out the Houston Astros 2-0 on March 5, 2026, at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium, with both runs coming on solo scoring plays in the third and sixth innings. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Miami holding a 54 percent pre-game win probability and closed at 100 percent, reflecting how thoroughly the Marlins controlled the contest from start to finish. Houston managed just one hit across nine innings and never mounted a sustained threat.
The game's most decisive sequence came in the top of the eighth, when Jax Biggers grounded into a double play off Tyler Zuber, a play that shifted win probability by negative 16.2 percent from Houston's perspective and effectively ended any remaining Astros hope. Earlier, in the top of the fifth, Cam Smith's strikeout against Robby Snelling cost Houston 11.9 percent in win probability, compounding the damage from a lineup that could not string together traffic. On the positive side for the Astros, Justin Thomas Jr. drew a walk in the eighth for a 7.3 percent swing, and Christian Walker worked a walk in the fifth for 6.9 percent, but neither lead to any scoring.
Robby Snelling was the standout performer of the night, leading all pitchers with a 19.5 percent WPA contribution, while Sandy Alcantara added 8.2 percent and Zuber chipped in 8.1 percent to round out a dominant collective effort from Miami's staff. At the plate, Xavier Edwards paced the Marlins with a third-inning single off Spencer Arrighetti that generated 9.9 percent in win probability added and finished with a team-best plus-9.4 percent WPA and 0.8 RE24. Justin Thomas Jr. and Graham Pauley also contributed positive WPA figures, but it was the pitching that defined this contest, as Miami held Houston to a single hit and never allowed the Astros to threaten in any serious way.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.