The Cincinnati Reds rolled past Cuba 19-2 at Goodyear Ballpark on March 4, 2026, turning what the DiamondIQ model estimated as a relatively even contest — Cuba entered with a 54% pre-game win probability — into an absolute rout. The Reds put up crooked numbers in five of the first six innings and then buried the game entirely with an eight-run eighth, finishing with 19 hits and no errors while Cuba committed two of its own across nine innings.
The decisive sequence came early and built fast. TJ Friedl's second-inning double off Julio Robaina was the first significant swing in win probability, pushing Cincinnati's chances up by 8.8 percentage points, with Matt McLain's groundout in the same frame adding another 4.3 points as the Reds took full advantage of the frame. The game's single biggest play arrived in the third, when Noelvi Marte launched a home run off Josimar Cousin that shifted win probability by 14.9 points in Cincinnati's favor, effectively ending any realistic path for Cuba to recover. Spencer Steer added a double later in that same inning for another 8.2-point swing. On the other side, Rhett Lowder did his part in the bottom of the second, retiring Alexei Ramirez on a strikeout that cost Cuba 6.8 points of win probability.
Marte finished as the game's top performer by every DiamondIQ measure, posting a plus-16.1% WPA and a plus-3.8 RE24 on the strength of that pivotal home run. Friedl was close behind at plus-8.5% WPA and plus-2.0 RE24, while Steer contributed a plus-8.0% WPA. On the mound, Lowder was the clear standout with a plus-14.1% WPA, helping lock down Cuba's lineup in the early innings and allowing the offense to bury the game before it ever had a chance to develop.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.