Canada rallied past the Philadelphia Phillies 5-3 at BayCare Ballpark on March 4, 2026, overcoming a game in which the DiamondIQ model opened with a 54 percent pre-game win probability favoring Philadelphia. The Phillies grabbed an early advantage, plating a run in the second and two more in the fourth on an Alec Bohm home run off James Paxton, a swing that shifted win probability 10.0 percent in Philadelphia's favor. Canada answered decisively in the sixth, where Abraham Toro delivered the game's most consequential hit, a double off Jonathan Bowlan that swung win probability 18.3 percent toward the Canadian side and keyed a four-run frame that erased the deficit entirely. Tyler Black added further separation in the eighth with a run-scoring single off Génesis Cabrera, a hit worth 14.9 percent in win probability that effectively sealed the outcome.
Toro finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-15.5 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.1, his sixth-inning double serving as the hinge point of the entire contest. Matt Davidson also contributed meaningfully, posting a WPA of plus-12.6 and a RE24 of plus-0.9. On the mound, Micah Ashman led Canadian pitchers with a WPA of plus-9.7, while Aaron Nola paced Philadelphia's staff at plus-8.3. René Pinto appeared in the top performers list at plus-14.4 percent WPA despite a negative RE24 of minus-0.1, his contribution coming on a ninth-inning lineout that, in context, preserved the lead. Phillies reliever Caleb Ricketts saw his strikeout of a Canadian batter in the eighth register as a minus-7.4 percent swing, reflecting how heavily the model weighted Canada's late-inning threats. Canada finished with eight hits and two errors against Philadelphia's seven hits and clean fielding.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.