The Houston Astros defeated Venezuela 3-1 on March 3, 2026, at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Houston's offense was largely quiet through the early innings, but the Astros gradually built their advantage against a Venezuela pitching staff that kept them in check until the game's critical late moments.
The decisive blow came in the bottom of the eighth inning, when Carlos Pérez launched a home run off Amilcar Chirinos that swung win probability by plus-30.3 percent, the single largest play of the game by that measure. That hit was the knockout punch after Taylor Trammell had set the tone earlier with a walk against Daniel Palencia in the sixth inning, a seemingly modest play that nonetheless shifted win probability by plus-11.9 percent given the game state. On the Venezuela side, William Contreras grounded into a double play in the top of the fourth off Ryan Weiss, a minus-9.0 percent swing that effectively extinguished a potential rally, and the Venezuelan offense finished with seven hits but only one run, going 1-for-7 with an error-free afternoon that simply could not overcome Houston's bullpen work.
The Houston relief corps was instrumental in protecting the slim lead. Michael Knorr led all pitchers with a plus-13.7 percent WPA contribution, followed by Sam Carlson at plus-11.5 percent and Bryan King at plus-9.3 percent. Offensively, Pérez led all batters with a plus-30.3 percent WPA and a plus-1.7 RE24, while Trammell and Gleyber Torres each contributed positive WPA figures of plus-7.9 and plus-7.2 percent respectively, rounding out a disciplined Astros performance that held Venezuela to a single run on the afternoon.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.