The United States routed the San Francisco Giants 15-1 at Scottsdale Stadium on March 3, 2026, a result that left little doubt from early on. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the Giants a 54 percent home win probability, but by the final out that figure had collapsed to zero. USA finished with 19 hits and no errors, while San Francisco committed two errors and managed just six hits in a game that turned lopsided quickly and only grew more decisive as innings passed.
The decisive shift in probability came in the fourth inning, when Alex Bregman launched a home run off Blade Tidwell that swung win probability 10.4 percent in the United States' favor, the single largest play of the game. Tidwell continued to struggle in the fifth, surrendering a Bryce Harper single that added another 9.2 percent, followed by a Bobby Witt Jr. single worth 5.2 percent in the same frame. Roman Anthony then connected for a home run off Tidwell in the sixth, adding 5.6 percent to USA's win probability. The seventh inning produced a six-run eruption that put the outcome entirely beyond reach. An early moment also worth noting came in the first, when Cal Raleigh struck out against Adrian Houser in a sequence that shifted probability 4.5 percent toward the United States.
Among individual performers, Alex Bregman led USA batters with a WPA of plus-8.7 percent, while Bryce Harper followed at plus-7.7 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.5, reflecting his run-environment contribution across his plate appearances. Brice Turang also posted a solid plus-5.2 percent WPA. On the mound, Paul Skenes was the standout, generating plus-15.3 percent WPA, with Matthew Boyd adding plus-11.1 percent in what was a comprehensive pitching performance that kept the Giants' offense nearly silent throughout.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.