The Kingdom of the Netherlands handed the Baltimore Orioles an 8-5 defeat at Ed Smith Stadium on March 3, 2026, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 54 percent pre-game probability of a Baltimore win. The Netherlands seized control early and never relinquished it, scoring one run in the first inning before a four-run second and a three-run third turned a close game into a commanding lead that Baltimore could not overcome, finishing with 13 hits against just 7 for the Orioles, whose four errors further undermined their cause.
The decisive sequence came in that second inning, when Ceddanne Rafaela connected on a home run off Trevor Rogers that shifted win probability by plus 9.2 percent in the Netherlands' favor, the single most impactful play of the game. Rafaela followed that with a double off Joe Glassey in the third inning worth an additional plus 8.1 percent, giving him a game-high plus 17.2 percent WPA on the day alongside a plus 3.6 RE24. Baltimore's attempts to answer were repeatedly snuffed out, most notably when Bryan Ramos lined out against Dylan Wilson in the bottom of the second at minus 8.8 percent, and Colin Yeaman grounded into a double play off Lars Huijer in the sixth at minus 7.9 percent.
On the mound, Lars Huijer led all pitchers with plus 14.3 percent WPA, while Dylan Wilson contributed plus 11.6 percent in relief, the pair forming the backbone of a pitching effort that held Baltimore's offense in check through the final six innings after the damage was already done. Didi Gregorius added plus 7.1 percent WPA at the plate, and Sharlon Schoop contributed plus 7.0 percent as the Netherlands collected a decisive road victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.