MLB Recap · March 3, 2026

Brazil at Athletics: Final Score & Recap

BRA4
Final
ATH14

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
BRA1000300--482
ATH704030---1491

The Story

The Athletics routed Brazil 14-4 at Hohokam Stadium on March 3, 2026, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate of an Oakland win from 54 percent before first pitch to 100 percent by game's end. The damage came early and decisively, with Athletics hitters posting seven runs in the bottom of the first inning and four more in the third to effectively end the contest before Brazil could mount any sustained threat. Brazil managed three runs in the top of the fifth, but the deficit was already insurmountable. The final line told a lopsided story: Oakland collected nine hits against eight for Brazil, while Brazil's two errors compounded their pitching troubles throughout the afternoon.

The biggest individual swing in win probability came from Jeff McNeil, whose two plate appearances against Bo Takahashi in the bottom of the first accounted for the clearest early momentum shift. A pop out by McNeil carried a +9.8 percent win-probability impact in that frame, followed by a home run worth an additional +3.8 percent, contributing to a game total of +13.6 percent WPA and +1.4 RE24 for McNeil on the day. Cade Marlowe added +10.9 percent WPA, headlined by a strikeout in the bottom of the second against Eric Pardinho that carried a +10.0 percent swing — a reflection of how thoroughly Oakland was controlling the at-bat sequencing in those early innings. Ryan Lasko contributed a more run-production-oriented line with +2.3 RE24, the highest of the three top performers by that measure.

On the mound, Aaron Civale was the primary beneficiary of Oakland's early offensive outburst, finishing with a +9.1 percent WPA that reflected both his own effectiveness and the run support he received. Brazil's best individual offensive moment came from Osvaldo Carvalho, whose double off Civale in the top of the third generated a +2.5 percent win-probability swing for the visiting side, though it was far too little to alter the trajectory of a game already firmly in Oakland's control.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025BRA bats firstFinalATH win %BRA win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Lucas Ramirez Flyout
Top 2nd · off Aaron Civale
-11.0%
Cade Marlowe Strikeout
Bot 2nd · off Eric Pardinho
+10.0%
Jeff McNeil Pop Out
Bot 1st · off Bo Takahashi
+9.8%
Jeff McNeil Home Run
Bot 1st · off Bo Takahashi
+3.8%
Osvaldo Carvalho Double
Top 3rd · off Aaron Civale
+2.5%

Top Batters by WPA

Jeff McNeil+13.6%+1.4 RE24
Cade Marlowe+10.9%+0.1 RE24
Ryan Lasko+3.0%+2.3 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

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