The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Colorado Rockies 7-5 at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick on March 2, 2026, improving their final win probability from the DiamondIQ model's estimate of 54% at first pitch to a decisive 100% by the final out. The Dodgers built their lead through a series of impactful home runs, with James Tibbs III delivering the first major blow in the top of the fourth off Welinton Herrera, a swing the DiamondIQ model valued at a 21.5% win-probability shift in Los Angeles's favor. The Rockies responded in the bottom of the sixth with back-to-back home runs from Kyle Karros off Carson Hobbs, worth 15.3% in win probability, and Mickey Moniak, adding another 13.7%, cutting into the Dodgers' lead and keeping the game competitive through the middle innings.
The decisive moment came in the top of the eighth, when Elijah Hainline launched a home run off Adam Laskey that registered as the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 31.7%, effectively sealing the outcome. Colorado mounted a two-run response in the bottom of the ninth, but any remaining hope was extinguished when Roc Riggio grounded into a double play off Payton Martin in the eighth, a play that cost the Rockies 14.4% in win probability and stalled what could have been a meaningful rally.
By individual contribution, Hainline led all batters with a WPA of plus 31.5% and a RE24 of plus 1.5, while Moniak and Tibbs III each posted RE24 marks of plus 1.8, with Moniak finishing at plus 21.3% WPA and Tibbs III at plus 18.2%. On the pitching side, Payton Martin was the model's top-rated arm at plus 21.6% WPA, supported by Jordan Weems at plus 6.6% and Edgardo Henriquez at plus 5.9%, a trio that collectively held Colorado's offense in check when it mattered most.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.